What would it take for Donald Trump to win the presidency? Pundits trying to answer that question turn to the patchwork of red and blue on the electoral vote map, looking for possible paths to the 270 electoral votes required to become president. Their answers range from somewhat complicated to ABC News' 700-word, four-step analysis and beyond. So let me simplify things for you. For Trump to be nearly certain of victory, it is both necessary and sufficient that he close his